Well, after 82 games of technically improving, the Columbus Blue Jackets’ season has ended. But not the NHL season! The Stanley Cup Playoffs begin tonight, with a double-header on TBS starting at 5:00, before a quadruple-header on ESPN Sunday starting at 12:30. For those who just casually watch the Blue Jackets because they’re from Columbus, I would highly recommend tuning into some games; there’s truly nothing like playoff hockey. Especially if a game goes to overtime.
But who should the 5th Line root for? The games are all the more fun to watch if you have a rooting interest, after all. And while some people may have pre-existing allegiances (I’ve had the Hurricanes as my second team for a while now), many are left with 16 equal options they need to splice out. Let’s break it down, with actual #math.
There’s a lot to go over, so let’s throw our beloved Blue Jackets into the woodchipper to get a sense of what’s going on. If you just want my rankings without the explanation, skip down to Washington at #16.
Comparison – Columbus Blue Jackets
Alright, so there’s a lot of numbers here. What’s going on? Well, the two main ones you need to worry about are the Overall Rating, listed between the team name and categories, and Contender Value, marked by CV.
Overall Rating is on a 0-100 scale, higher being better, and is a composite of the other seven categories. That’s what the teams are being ranked by. Contender Value is supposed to mark how likely I think the team is to win the Stanley Cup, on a 0-15 scale that just adds together the first three categories, which measure a team’s on-ice performance. These three categories are also double-weighted.
I should probably explain the categories now, huh? These are all on 0-5 scales, like the 5 Star system.
Greatness (GRT) is supposed to measure how dominant a team is. Each team’s Points Percentage, Winning Percentage, and Regulation Win Percentage are added together, essentially using a 4-3-1-0 points system. This creates a natural 0-2 scale, which a 2.5x multiplier is thrown on to get a 0-5 scale.
FUN attempts to measure how Fun to Watch a team is. Goals are fun! So Goals per Game and Goal Differential form the basis. Having a competent Powerplay is fun, so Powerplay Percentage is added (expressed in decimal, so 0.175 instead of 17.5). And dominant goaltending can be fun too, so Shutouts/Game is the final component.
Starpower (STR) is admittedly pretty subjective. I just looked at the roster, and counted how many players I consider to be stars. Because watching stars be dominant is fun, and you need dependable stars in order to win the Cup.
Dues (DUE) is supposed to be how much the team is “owed” a Cup. Teams were categorized from 0-4 based on their most recent Cup win (0 for 2020s and 10s, 1 for the 00s, 2 for the 90s, 3 for the 80s and earlier, and 4 if they’ve never won the Cup). Then, I add their “Unfinished Series,” or how many series teams have played, not counting the four they’d get from winning a Cup. I used the average over the last five years for this. Essentially, how much have they had success in the Playoffs yet still fallen short?
Ex-Blue Jackets (CBJ) is just how many ex-Blue Jackets each team has. It’s fun to cheer for Jack Roslovic, or Max Domi, or …technically Johnathan Marchessault? Sure!
Likability (LIK) is me giving each team 1-5 Stars based on how much I like them. Is this subjective, and based solely on my own opinion? Yep!
Finally, it wouldn’t be a Burkus article without talking about Uniform Design (DSN), so each team is given 1-5 Stars based on how much I like their jerseys. Because our uniforms suck, and if I’m watching non-Jackets hockey, I want to give my eyeballs a break.
Okay, we’re way too many words into this and still have 16 teams to go. Let’s get to the actual thing.
#16 – Washington Capitals
Okay, you know how I used the Jackets as a comparison? Well, they still scored a 51.10. The Capitals come in at a pitiful 39.72. They have a -37 goal differential and made it in on an empty netter. Only one category passes the 2.5 mark. They won a Cup in 2018. They only have one ex-Blue Jacket (Sonny Milano, who has had a pretty good year). No one likes them, because of Tom Wilson (who I debated including as a Star to make their rating slightly better, but decided against because screw Tom Wilson). And their jerseys suck! Don’t root for the Capitals.
#15 – New York Islanders
There we go, an actual team worth consideration. The Islanders are a defensive-minded, system-first franchise with elite goaltending. So everything the Jackets don’t have. The exact roster construction that excels in the playoffs (as evidenced by their high DUES rating), and unfortunately, that’s exactly the thing my metrics work against. I mean, there isn’t much to get excited about, but I wouldn’t be shocked if they pull of the upset against Carolina.
#14 – Los Angeles Kings
The Kings are kinda in a weird spot. They’ve been retooling for the past five or so years, and have a fun mix of young prospects, like Quinton Byfield and Arthur Kaliyev, retained veterans from their early 2010s Cups, like Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty, and brought in a ton of talent, like Philip Danault and Kevin Fiala. The result is a.. team I don’t really know how to evaluate. They have amazing depth all around, but goaltending is a question mark and don’t have a ton of playoff experience. Idk, they have Vladislav Gavrikov, that’s pretty neat.
#13 – Boston Bruins
The Bruins are also weird, because I fundamentally do not understand how they’re still this good. After putting up the best season in NHL history last year, they went from Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci as their top two centers to Pavel Zacha and Charlie Coyle. And somehow were still leading the division until the last day of the season. Well, mostly do to David Pastrnak and elite goaltending. However, they still employ Brad Marchand, so they’re not the most appealing option.
#12 – Tampa Bay Lightning
I mean, the Lightning are a very, very good team. I know it. You know it. We all know it. They’re absolutely loaded with stars. Andrei Vasilevskiy is arguably the best goalie in the League. Nikita Kucherov just got 100 assists. But they’re also the Tampa Bay Lightning. Kucherov is kinda dirty, they’ve won two Cups in the past four years, and we’re borderline playoff rivals after The Sweep and the 5OT Bubble game. So yeah.
#11 – Nashville Predators
So, the last game I recapped this season was the penultimate game in Nashville. And the Predators have an actually interesting roster, circa 2019. Ryan O’Reilly! Gustav Nyquist! Ryan McDonagh! Jason Zucker! Beauvillier, Schenn, and Barrie! I had completely forgotten that any of these guys were on the Predators until a week ago! And I think that’s fun. Couple that with the core of Roman Josi, Jusse Saros, and Filip Forsberg, and some young guns like Luke Evangelista, and they’re a surprisingly fun option. The main holdup is that, as a Wildcard team, they aren’t that likely to make a deep run.
#10 – Vegas Golden Knights
The Golden Knights are a polarizing team. Most fans outside of Vegas think of the team as a bunch of spoiled brats, that backstab their loyal players, and cheat by stashing people on LTIR until the playoffs start. Some fans think that they’re an exciting team filled to the brim with stars, willing to do whatever it takes to win, and are in on every player at the deadline and always looking to improve their roster. I personally fall in the second category. On paper, a team with Alex Pietrangelo, Jack Eichel, Mark Stone, and Jonathan Marchessault, that added Tomas Hertl at the deadline, sounds like a great roster on paper. It’s just that because it’s the Vegas Golden Knights, people get jealous and start hating.
I don’t know why this has become a defense of the Golden Knights. Give them a chance. Thank you for coming to my TED Talk.
#9 – Colorado Avalanche
Here’s a sentence that hasn’t been uttered since, like, 2018: The Colorado Avalanche are flying under the radar. After winning the Stanley Cup two years ago, the Avs got bounces in the first round last year, and now that they “only” finished third in the Central they’re seemingly being dismissed. They still earned 107 points, only two less than last year. They scored the 302 goals this year, the only team in the NHL to break 300. They still have Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar, and their uniforms are outstanding. If you ask me, this is where the “good options” start.
#8 – Winnipeg Jets
The Jets are fun, because they’re kinda like the Blue Jackets’ dream scenario on steroids. After several seasons of internal strife and locker room issues, they simply got a new coach and traded away the guys causing the locker room issues, and improved by 15 points over last year and 21 points over two years ago. The also led the League in Regulation Wins with 46. The second Pierre-Luc Dubois trade, which has brought in a pair of key pieces in Alex Iafallo and Gabriel Vilardi, coupled with God-level goaltending from Connor Hellebuyck, and the emergence of defenseman Josh Morrissey, has springboarded the Jets into contention.
#7 – Toronto Maple Leafs
Ah, the Leafs. 1967 memes. Plethora of Starpower. Annual Game 7 chokes. Yes, I know they won a round last year, but they’re playing Boston so it cancels out.
#6 – Edmonton Oilers
This is where it really gets tough. The Top Six teams are within 4.6 points of each other on Overall Rating, and any would make a great team to hop on the bandwagon for.
Normally, I would wax on about how the Oilers have two of the five best players in hockey, but not much else, but the emergences of Zach Hyman and Evan Bouchard have changed that narrative. And since firing Jay Woodcroft 13 games in, they have the best Points Percentage in the League, most Wins in the League, and second most Goals Scored in the League. After a shaky start to the season from the goalies, Stuart Skinner has put up a very respectable .912 save percentage. This could be the year they actually do it. We’ll see.
#5 – Carolina Hurricanes
Like Vegas, the Carolina Hurricanes are another team that Hockey Twitter seems to love to hate. To a lesser extent, sure, but still present. And I also don’t get it, even less than Vegas. The roster has skill from top to bottom, from known stars like Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov to lesser-known guys like Jordan Martinook and Brett Pesce. Couple that with high Greatness and Funness scores thanks to having the third best record and elite special teams, and it’s impossible not to root for them. Sprinkle on the stuff these rankings don’t account for, like the amazing atmosphere at PNC Arena, the amazing Storm Surge celebrations, and a top-notch socials team, and this would be my personal #1 suggestion for who to bandwagon on. The only downside is that they insist on wearing their atrocious black jerseys in the playoffs, but aside from that they’re a great option.
#4 – Florida Panthers
The main strength of the Panthers, at least when it comes to my metrics, is that they have no weakness. Their lowest category is ex-Jackets, but only one team has more than two. Everything else is great, including a DUES score so high I had to put a 0.9x multiplier on the category to keep it under 5. And make no mistake, they’re still a fun team, assuming you are a fan of Matt Tkachuk and have forgiven Sergei Bobrovsky.
#3 – Vancouver Canucks
The biggest surprise team of the season lands at #3 in the Bandwagon Rankings. I don’t really know how this happened either. Well, Quinn Hughes went from bona fide top defenseman to top defenseman in the League, Thatcher Demko regained his Vezina-caliber play, and like five different forwards has career years. Pettersson, Miller, and Boeser are a three-headed monster. Another great choice with no real weaknesses throughout.
#2 – New York Rangers
Make no mistake, the New York Rangers are a very good team. They won the President’s Trophy for a reason. The highest Greatness score and very respectable 4.36 in the Fun category couple with a well-earned 5 in the Starpower slot to make a force to be reckoned with. But what catapults the Rangers into second place is them having four former Blue Jackets: Artemi Panarin (which may be a negative to some), Jack Roslovic, Alexander Wennberg, and Jonathan Quick (if you don’t want to count him, Riley Nash also played a game for them). The question is whether or not that offsets the less-than fantastic vibes, fueled by the questionable dirty hits thrown around by Jacob Trouba.
#1 – Dallas Stars
And taking the top spot, we have the Dallas Stars! They have probably the most unique roster construction in the League, with budding superstars like Wyatt Johnston, Miro Heiskanen, Roope Hintz, and Jason Robertson joining still-great veterans like Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn, Matt Duchene, and ageless wonder Joe Pavelski. Those eight players, plus Mason Marchment, all hit 50 points this season. Couple that with elite goaltending from Jake Oettenger, who’s worked to make his case as one of the best goalies in the NHL, and you have a great team to root for. They have the highest Funness rating and Contender Value among playoff teams, and having played in 12 series in the past five years with no Cups makes this a great option for Jackets fans to jump on the Bandwagon on.
Who will you be rooting for in the Stanley Cup playoffs, and why? Sound off below!